Introduction: Motorcycle Road Safety in Crisis
Last week, headlines spotlighted a 9% rise in motorcyclist deaths in 2024, climbing from 339 to 350 fatalities. I believe most riders recognise this uptick as part of normal yearly fluctuations. Yet, the broader context is deeply concerning: motorcyclists, comprising just 1% of road traffic, account for 21% of all road deaths, facing risks far higher than car drivers. The picture for other vulnerable road users (VRUs) is no brighter, with pedestrian deaths rising 6% from 385 to 408 and cyclist deaths rising 1% from 91 to 92, according to provisional government data for 2024.
Outlets like The Independent and Yahoo News framed the motorcyclist rise as a crisis, but their sensationalism ignored its statistical context, relying on generic comments from the RAC and AA instead of rider advocates like the Motorcycle Action Group (MAG). This shallow reporting mirrors the stagnation of Vision Zero, the UK’s road safety strategy, which has failed to reduce VRU fatalities for over a decade. Vision Zero’s anti-motorcyclist bias, articulated by Claes Tingvall in 1995 as viewing motorcycling as incompatible with safety, persists, favouring restrictions over rider expertise.
The 2022 Highway Code’s hierarchy, is certainly not showing any results. MAG’s Welcoming Roads philosophy offers a robust, rider-led alternative for motorcycle road safety, extensible to all VRUs.
Decoding a Decade of Stagnation: The 2024 Statistics
The 2024 fatality figures for motorcyclists, pedestrians, and cyclists are worrying, but they reflect normal statistical variation within a decade-long stagnation. Picture yearly deaths as waves on a sea: they rise and fall within a typical range due to random factors like weather or collisions. Standard deviation measures this range—how much the waves usually vary from their average height. If a year’s change is within about two standard deviations, it’s normal variation, not a significant shift that signals a major problem.
For motorcyclists, the 9% rise from 339 to 350 deaths in 2024 is within this normal range. Over the past decade (2013–2023), fatalities ranged from 285 to 365, with a standard deviation of about 8.6, based on government statistics. The 2024 increase of 11 deaths is roughly 0.32 standard deviation, well below the threshold for statistical significance—meaning it’s not an unusual spike. Similar fluctuations occurred in 2017 (9.4% rise) and 2022 (12.9%). Yet, this isn’t progress: fatalities have remained broadly stable since 2013, averaging around 333, showing a decade-long stagnation in motorcycle road safety, as noted in the Reported Road Casualties Great Britain, Annual Report: 2023.
Not Just Motorcycles
Pedestrian fatalities rose 6% from 385 to 408, also within normal variation, with a standard deviation of about 20.7 over 2013–2023. This increase of 23 deaths is about 1.11 standard deviations, not significant. Pedestrian deaths are 2% higher than a decade ago, indicating no progress, as reported by This is Money. Cyclist fatalities rose 1% from 91 to 92, within a standard deviation of about 10.2, at 0.09 standard deviation. While a 23% decline since 2013 suggests some gains, the 2013–2019 period was stable around 100, and 2024’s rise is modest, per the Reported Road Casualties Great Britain, Pedal Cycle Factsheet: 2023.
This decade-long stagnation—motorcyclists and pedestrians stuck, cyclists with minor gains—confirms Vision Zero’s failure to advance motorcycle road safety and VRU protection, despite claims of progress.
Media’s Misstep: Sensationalism Over Insight
Media outlets like The Independent and Yahoo News hyped the 9% motorcyclist rise as “alarming” without explaining its statistical normality. Their reliance on RAC’s Rod Dennis, who echoed the alarmist tone, and AA’s Edmund King, who veered into irrelevant seatbelt rules, exposed a lack of insight. These generic responses ignored rider-specific risks, such as potholes, which MAG’s research shows contribute to an average of 70 serious and 4 fatal motorcycle road traffic collisions (RTCs) annually, or car collisions, where 37% of motorcycle fatalities involve cars, often due to drivers failing to look properly or misjudging speed, per government data from 2019–2023. By bypassing MAG, media perpetuated shallow narratives, missing Vision Zero’s decade-long stagnation in motorcycle road safety.
Highway Code Hierarchy: Vision Zero’s Ideological Flaw
The 2022 Highway Code changes introduced a hierarchy suggesting pedestrians and cyclists bear less responsibility for their safety, a premise MAG opposed. We advocate equal responsibility for all road users, as per our Welcoming Roads campaign, believing everyone must actively ensure their own safety and that of others. We suspect MAG was excluded from drafting to avoid challenging Vision Zero’s hierarchy-driven ideology, which prioritises restrictions over mutual accountability.
The hierarchy’s failure is evident in 2024’s data: pedestrian and motorcyclist deaths rose, with only minor cyclist gains. A 2024 AA survey, reported by This is Money, found 42% of drivers unaware of the hierarchy, undermining its impact. This reflects Vision Zero’s dogmatic belief in top-down rules, dismissing motorcyclists’ expertise despite stagnation. Claes Tingvall’s 1995 claim that motorcycling doesn’t fit Vision Zero, though retracted, still shapes its anti-motorcyclist bias, favouring regulation over practical solutions for motorcycle road safety.
Welcoming Roads: A Robust Vision for Motorcycle Road Safety
Vision Zero’s decade-long stagnation, clear in 2024’s VRU data, stems from its anti-motorcyclist bias, rooted in Tingvall’s view and perpetuated through restrictive policies. MAG’s Welcoming Roads is a robust alternative, dismissed as a challenge to Vision Zero’s dogma but offering a transformative vision for motorcycle road safety. Its strengths include:
- Equal Responsibility: Rejects hierarchies, insisting all road users—motorcyclists, pedestrians, cyclists—share equal duty for safety, fostering mutual respect.
- Rider-Led Solutions: Built on MAG’s surveys, it tackles risks like potholes and car collisions, where drivers’ failure to look properly is a key factor, while benefiting all VRUs through better infrastructure and awareness.
- Evidence-Driven: Targets measurable outcomes like reduced fatalities, unlike Vision Zero’s stagnant results, supported by initiatives like BikeSafe.
- Inclusive Engagement: Demands rider and VRU input, countering Vision Zero’s exclusion of motorcyclists’ expertise.
- Holistic Approach: Offers a framework for all VRUs, breaking stagnation with practical, inclusive measures.
Welcoming Roads is a sincere effort to advance motorcycle road safety, grounded in riders’ lived experiences and extensible to all road users.
A Better Question to Challenge Vision Zero
Media’s sensationalism misses the core issue. A better question is: “Why has Vision Zero failed to protect vulnerable road users like motorcyclists, pedestrians, and cyclists for over a decade, and could alternatives like Welcoming Roads deliver better outcomes?” This question:
- Exposes Vision Zero’s stagnation and anti-motorcyclist bias.
- Critiques the Highway Code’s flawed hierarchy premise.
- Promotes Welcoming Roads’ inclusive vision.
- Drives solutions like mutual respect and rider engagement.
It shifts the narrative from alarm to reform, prioritising motorcycle road safety.
Broader Implications: A New Path for Road Safety
The 2024 data—motorcyclists up 9%, pedestrians up 6%, cyclists slightly down—confirms a decade-long plateau, driven by Vision Zero’s anti-motorcyclist dogma and exclusionary policies. Welcoming Roads offers a paradigm shift, ensuring roads are safe and accessible for all VRUs through shared responsibility and rider wisdom. Media must move beyond shallow reporting, and policymakers must embrace MAG’s expertise to redefine motorcycle road safety.
Conclusion: Welcoming Roads for Motorcycle Road Safety
The 350 motorcyclist and 408 pedestrian deaths in 2024 reflect normal variation, not a crisis, but expose Vision Zero’s decade-long stagnation. Media’s confected alarm and uninsightful RAC/AA responses, alongside the Highway Code’s flawed hierarchy, highlight a broken system. MAG’s Welcoming Roads counters Vision Zero’s anti-motorcyclist bias with a robust, inclusive vision for motorcycle road safety. Ask why Vision Zero fails and embrace Welcoming Roads. Motorcyclists, policymakers, media, and road safety professionals—join MAG to champion real change.